Stay alert: probability of African Swine Fever introduction from Eastern Asia is almost as high as from Eastern Europe

INTRODUCTION: African Swine Fever (ASF) is a severe viral disease infecting all suid species. Since the first outbreak in Georgia in 2007, it has slowly spread towards Western Europe and reached the European Union when first cases were detected in Poland and the Baltic States in 2014. ASF was first reported in China in 2018 and since then, it has spread to 14 countries within two years. This study aimed to estimate the introduction probability of ASF from Eastern Asia in a qualitative risk assessment, and to compare it to the probability from Eastern Europe, which was assessed in an earlier risk assessment. A high probability of introduction was estimated for the import of meat and meat products, which was found to be the most likely route of introduction. Less important routes were introduction by human contamination (low probability) or import of feed or blood products (very low probability). Import of domestic pigs or free-ranging wild boar, contaminated means of transport, or infected semen, embryo or ticks were all estimated to be negligible. For Eastern Europe, import of meat and meat products was also estimated to pose a high risk and was therefore the most likely route of introduction. Higher probabilities were estimated for import of live pigs, contaminated feed or means of transport and human contamination. Overall, the probability of introduction from Eastern Asia is only slightly lower than from Eastern Europe. As it is important to detect the first case as quickly as possible, it is important not to fall victim to habituation effects, but to remain vigilant.