Key result
A stochastic model estimated the annual probability of African swine fever virus introduction into the EU via legal live pig trade at 5.22x10^-3, with the highest risk in Poland (69%).
Population
European Union (EU) countries importing live pigs
Design
Other
Authors
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Low overall ASFV introduction risk via legal trade supports targeted surveillance in Poland; leaves open empirical validation of model assumptions.
The risk of ASFV introduction into the EU via legal live pig trade is low overall but highest in Poland and primarily driven by imports from the Russian Federation.
Mur et al. (2011) studied African swine fever virus (ASFV) introduction. Legal import of live pigs was evaluated on Annual probability of ASFV introduction into the EU via legal trade of live pigs. A stochastic model estimated the annual probability of African swine fever virus introduction into the EU via legal live pig trade at 5.22x10^-3, with the highest risk in Poland (69%).
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