Key result
Returning trucks pose the highest relative risk for African swine fever introduction into the EU among transport-associated routes, accounting for 65% of the total risk.
A semi-quantitative model identifies returning trucks as the highest transport-associated risk route for African swine fever introduction into the EU, particularly for Poland and Lithuania.
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Returning trucks warrant prioritized EU border biosecurity; modeling leaves open prospective validation before guiding policy.
Mur et al. (2012) studied African swine fever introduction risk. Transport-associated routes (returning trucks, waste from ships, waste from planes) was evaluated on Relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by transport-associated routes. Returning trucks pose the highest relative risk for African swine fever introduction into the EU among transport-associated routes, accounting for 65% of the total risk.
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