Key result
Imported ship and aircraft waste is estimated to cause foot-and-mouth outbreaks every ~1429 years.
The risk of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in British livestock due to imported ship and aircraft waste is estimated to be very low, with a mean interval of 1429 years between outbreaks.
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Negligible FMD risk implies low priority for targeted waste controls; leaves open updated modeling with current trade volumes.
Adkin et al. (2008) studied Foot-and-mouth disease. Importation of ship and aircraft waste was evaluated on Frequency of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks due to ship and aircraft waste. Importation of ship and aircraft waste was estimated to cause an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in British livestock with a mean interval of 1429 years (90% certainty: 500-10,000 years).
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