How do China’s dual-credit and right-of-way priority policies affect new energy vehicle industry dynamics? A system dynamics simulation based on tripartite evolutionary game

Introduction The new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is pivotal for the low-carbon transition of transportation. To promote NEV development, the Chinese government has implemented diverse policies. Methods Focusing on the incentive-oriented “right-of-way priority” policy and the constraint-based “dual-credit” policy, this study constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model involving the government, automakers, and consumers. By integrating system dynamics simulation with feedback structure analysis, this study explores the mid- and long-term effects of policy combinations on NEV industry development. Results (1) The dual-credit policy effectively promotes automakers’ green transition, but production-side constraints alone may cause supply-demand imbalances and price or quality issues. The right-of-way priority policy increases consumers’ purchase willingness in the short term but lacks long-term market momentum, while combined policies significantly improve market equilibrium. (2) Automakers’ increased enthusiasm for NEV production has a limited effect on consumer demand, whereas shifts in consumer preferences guide production decisions and promote green innovation. (3) Consumers, as core agents, prefer NEVs when lower NEV purchase and usage costs and higher long-term fuel vehicle costs reshape the full-life-cycle cost structure, creating a substitution effect for fuel vehicles. (4) Policy guidance is crucial initially, but market mechanisms should lead in the long term. Driving the endogenous growth of the automotive industry’s green transformation through market mechanisms is key to sustainable development of the NEV industry. Discussion This study provides new insights into the dynamic effects of heterogeneous policy combinations and offers practical implications for the sustainable development of the NEV industry.