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We propose a market timing test for conditional mean independence of financial returns. The new excess predictability (EP) test statistic has an interpretation of a properly normalized return of a certain trading strategy. We discuss similarities of the EP test to the popular directional accuracy (DA) test of Pesaran and Timmermann. Power properties of the EP test are advantageous, and size properties are comparable to those of the DA test. We illustrate application of the test using weekly data on the S&P500 index.
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Anatolyev et al. (2005) studied this question.
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