Techno-economic feasibility of riverine hydrokinetic systems under hydrological and financial uncertaintycase study on the Davao River, Philippines

Transitioning toward sustainable power generation requires robust models for emerging technologies like riverine hydrokinetic energy, which are often hindered by technical and financial uncertainties. This study presents a site-specific techno-economic analysis (TEA) of a conceptual hydrokinetic system for the Davao River, Philippines, utilizing a probabilistic Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) framework. Unlike traditional deterministic models that rely on fixed point-estimates, this research employs a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to account for inherent volatility in resource availability and capital expenditures. The methodology integrates high-fidelity hydrokinetic resource assessments from three specific sites—A, B, and C—with stochastic financial modeling of 3-kW riverine horizontal-axis cross-flow turbine. Results indicate that Site A exhibits the highest potential energy yield with an annual production of 15,785 kWh and a competitive capacity factor of 60%. The probabilistic simulation yields a mean LCOE of 0.481 USD/kWh, with a standard deviation of 0.0766 USD/kWh. The concentration of outcomes between 0.40 and 0.55 USD/kWh establishes an economic confidence band for the project's feasibility. These findings demonstrate that hydrokinetic systems are economically viable for distributed or off-grid applications in the Philippines, providing a scalable template for future renewable energy assessments in high-uncertainty environments.