Evaluating the potential of forest management in mitigating wildfire hazard under climate change

Wildfires are the primary disturbance in Mediterranean forest ecosystems, where climate change is projected to intensify fire hazard by reducing fuel moisture and altering fire regimes. This study evaluates the long-term effectiveness of four forest management archetypes ( risk mitigation, adaptation to climate change, carbon stock promotion, and Business-as-Usual ) in reducing future wildfire hazard across four SSP climate scenarios. We utilized a robust methodological framework coupling the medfate stand-level dynamics model with the Fuel Characteristics Classification System to project surface flame length (FL) and crown fire rate of spread (CF_ROS) in Pinus nigra (pN) and Pinus halepensis (pH) plots. We evaluated the change in basal area, shrub cover and FL across all combinations of management and climate scenarios in the period 2020–2100, analyzing the trade-offs between FL change and the required treatment intensity in two representative study sites in Spain hosting typical Pinus halepensis (Requena) and Pinus nigra (Montmajor) forest communities. In pN stands, surface fire control remained feasible in burned plots, though active crowning was highly probable under unburned conditions. Conversely, unburned pH stands retained enough fuel to transition into extreme crown fires. Management efficiency was dictated by site-specific traits, climate, and canopy-understory competitive trade-offs. In pN stands, BAU reduces surface fire behavior, while risk mitigation slows crown fire spread. In pH stands, optimal prescriptions depend on fire legacies. BAU was effective in controlling surface fire behavior in burned plots, whereas risk mitigation was required in unburned plots to consistently reduce CF_ROS as well.