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September 12, 2026Weather and Climate DynamicsOpen Access

Global shifts in mountain wave turbulence within high resolution climate models

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Authors

ISIsabel H. SmithPWPaul D. WilliamsRSR. Schiemann

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Overview

Climate modeling study reveals regional shifts in moderate-or-greater mountain wave turbulence by 2050, highlighting emerging aviation hazards across polar and mid-latitude flight corridors.

Key Points

  • Quantify global changes in moderate or greater mountain wave turbulence by 2050 under a high-end warming scenario using high-resolution climate simulations.
  • Evaluated three high-resolution global climate models: HadGEM3-GC3.1-HM (25 km), EC-Earth-3P-HR (36 km), and MPI-ESM1.2-XR (34 km).
  • Applied a 28-area sub-continental framework to resolve continental-scale uncertainties and assessed the relationship between mountain wave turbulence and 10 m surface wind speeds.
  • Mountain wave turbulence is projected to increase across North America overall, the Antarctic, Greenland, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and parts of Chile and Argentina.
  • Turbulence declines are projected over the Rocky Mountains, the Alps, the Atlas Mountains, and the northern and central Andes.
  • Projected regional changes in mountain wave turbulence show a positive correlation with changes in 10 m surface wind speed.

Cite This Study

Smith et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa51f39327956e4761f967ahttps://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1733-2026
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