What does this research mean for the field?

Clinical data alone accurately predicts BMI change over one year in individuals with psychosis, with genetic polygenic risk scores and gene expression data failing to improve prediction. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

Develop multivariable regression and classification models to predict one-year changes in body mass index among individuals with psychosis.

November 1, 2017Scientific ReportsOpen Access

Development of multivariable models to predict change in Body Mass Index within a clinical trial population of psychotic individuals

Q: What is the clinical evidence from this study?

Study design: Observational. Population: Psychosis (n=284). Intervention: Clinical, genetic, and gene expression predictors. Primary outcome: Prediction of Body Mass Index (BMI) after one year (R2 0.829).

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Key result

Clinical data alone accurately predicts one-year BMI change in psychotic individuals, rendering genetics unnecessary.

R2 0.829
n=284

Key Points

Develop multivariable regression and classification models to predict one-year changes in body mass index among individuals with psychosis.
Analyzed clinical, genetic, and transcriptomic data from 284 individuals with psychosis from the IMPACT randomized controlled trial.
Included clinical predictors (demographics, anthropometrics, blood and cardiac markers, lifestyle, medication), polygenic risk scores for psychiatric and metabolic traits, and WGCNA gene co-expression modules.
Trained regression and classification models to forecast continuous BMI change and categorical BMI gain over one year.
Models incorporating only clinical variables achieved the strongest predictive performance for one-year BMI and BMI gain.
Inclusion of polygenic risk scores and gene expression co-expression modules failed to improve model accuracy compared to clinical data alone.

Study Design

Type

Observational (n=284)

Structured PICO

Population

284 adults aged 18-65 with psychotic disorders, followed for one year to develop and validate multivariable models predicting change in Body Mass Index.

Outcome

Change in Body Mass Index (BMI) over one year (assessed as a continuous variable for regression and a binary variable of BMI point increase ≥1 for classification)surrogate

Main Result

Effect estimate: R2 0.829

Clinical variables alone are sufficient to predict weight gain over one year in patients with psychosis, with genetic and gene expression data providing no additional predictive value.

Limitations

Small sample size for the models incorporating genetic and expression data (n=108).
Use of a single hold-out testing set (internal validation) rather than external validation.
The sample originates from a uniquely ethnically diverse area (South London), which may limit generalizability to other populations.
Use of whole blood tissue for gene expression may be a poor representation of the obesity phenotype compared to adipose tissue.

Discussion

No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.

Implication

Clinical data may guide BMI monitoring in psychosis; leaves open whether genetics add value in larger or diverse cohorts.

Cite This Study

Harrison et al. (2017) conducted an observational in Psychosis (n=284). Clinical, genetic, and gene expression predictors was evaluated on Prediction of Body Mass Index (BMI) after one year (R2 0.829). A multivariable predictive model utilizing only clinical data accurately predicted BMI change over one year in psychotic individuals (R2 = 0.829), with genetic and expression data providing no additional predictive value.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa570ac014c9b816df4cb4a https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-15137-7

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Development of multivariable models to predict change in Body Mass Index within a clinical trial population of psychotic individuals

Key Points

Study Design

Structured PICO

Main Result

Limitations

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Development of multivariable models to predict change in Body Mass Index within a clinical trial population of psychotic individuals

Key Points

Study Design

Structured PICO

Main Result

Limitations

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Also Consider

Also Consider