A Predictive Model for Cereal Leaf Beetle 1 Mortality from Sub-freezing Temperatures 2

A predictive model is developed relating mortality of adult cereal leaf beetles ( Oulema melanopus , L.) to the duration and severity of continuous cold exposures. Experiments reveal the importance of a seasonal change in cold tolerance, preconditioning, and recovery from successive cold exposures in determining mortality from exposures of the type encountered in the field.