Heterogeneous growth mindset trajectories in middle school: Predictors and outcomes

Prior research often reports average declines in growth mindset during adolescence, typically attributed to increased academic pressure and social comparison. However, these mean-level trends may obscure important individual differences. This longitudinal study examined heterogeneity in growth mindset development by identifying distinct trajectory patterns and testing whether guided inquiry instruction and school belonging predicted trajectory membership. Additionally, the association between mindset trajectories and academic achievement was assessed. A sample of 1094 students was followed longitudinally from Grades 7 to 9. Latent growth modeling indicated minimal change in students' growth mindset on average. However, growth mixture modeling revealed four distinct growth mindset trajectories: High Stable (64%), Low Stable (14%), High Decreasing (12%), and Low Increasing (10%). Gender and socioeconomic status (SES) predicted trajectory membership, with girls and higher SES students more likely to belong to the High Stable trajectory. In contrast, neither guided inquiry instruction nor school belonging significantly predicted trajectory membership. Students in the High Stable trajectory showed higher academic achievement by the end of middle school than those in the Low Stable and Low Increasing trajectories, even after accounting for differences in initial achievement. These findings underscore the value of examining individual differences in mindset development. Early identification of and support for students at risk of stable fixed mindset beliefs or declining growth mindset beliefs may help promote adaptive mindsets and long-term academic success.