Perception and Regulation: A Case Study of Farmers in Bihar

The theory of regulation developed in general terms in cybernetics is used in an analysis of the perceived farming behaviour of a group of farmers in Bihar, India. Each farmer is viewed as being capable of defining those conditions of drought and pest attack which affect his own expectations of crop yield. These definitions are combined with climatic and field data to derive the expected frequency of environmental disturbances. Farmers also have expectations of the benefits of regulatory action, e.g. the use of irrigation or pesticides, either because they already use them, or because they have hearsay knowledge. For any time period, information on environmental disturbances, farmers' responses, and the transition of crops from one category of expected yield to another, is stored in one matrix. Three time periods are used for the analysis of rice crops: these are germination, middle growth, and flowering. The matrix at the end of each stage is analysed by means of information theory to indicate the degree of regulation achieved against disturbances. Four similar analyses are undertaken with the original sample of 92 farmers divided first into the two classes, large and small farmers, and secondly divided into the classes, tribal and non-tribal. It appears that the large farmers and non-tribal farmers have better expectations and abilities in terms of regulation than, respectively, small farmers and tribal farmers, but the confidence that can be placed in these distinctions is small due to the small sample size. The framework of the method is broad, and is seen to have useful extensions in terms of simulation planning strategies and comparing farming in unlike areas.