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July 22, 2013BMC CancerOpen Access

Predictive score for estimating cancer after venous thromboembolism: a cohort study

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Key result

Clinical score accurately predicts one-year cancer risk after newly diagnosed VTE with 0.79 AUC.

  • AUC 0.79
  • 95% CI 0.63-0.95
  • n=540

Why the study?

Does a clinical predictive score accurately estimate the risk of developing cancer or death in adult patients following newly diagnosed VTE?

Population

540 adult patients with newly diagnosed venous thromboembolism, excluding those with previous or incident…

Design

Cohort

Follow-up

one year

Authors

BFBruno L. FerreyroFAFederico AngrimanDGDiego Giunta

Discussion

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Member takes

Overview

May aid VTE risk stratification for surveillance; leaves open external validation and outcome impact.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=540)

Multicenter

No

Structured PICO

Does a clinical predictive score accurately estimate the risk of developing cancer or death in adult patients following newly diagnosed VTE?

P
Population
540 adult patients with newly diagnosed venous thromboembolism, free of prior cancer, followed for one year to develop and validate a predictive score for subsequent cancer or death.
E
Exposure
Clinical predictive score for cancer alone (including previous episode of VTE, recent surgery, and Charlson comorbidity score) and for cancer or death (including age, albumin level, comorbidity, previous episode of VTE, and recent surgery).
O
Outcome
New cancer diagnosis during one year of follow-uphard clinical

Main Result

Effect estimate: AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.63-0.95)

A simple clinical predictive score using baseline variables accurately estimates the 1-year risk of developing cancer or death following a newly diagnosed VTE.

Limitations

  • Could only evaluate variables contained in the database
  • Included only baseline variables, unable to evaluate characteristics that evolve over time
  • Validation cohort was derived from the initial sample and was not an independent cohort
  • Lack of standardized cancer screening may have introduced bias
  • Evaluated only variables contained in the database
  • Lack of standardized cancer screening, making it possible that the study is biased by physicians' decisions

Cite This Study

Ferreyro et al. (2013) conducted a cohort in Venous thromboembolism (n=540). Clinical predictive score was evaluated on New cancer diagnosis during one year of follow-up (score validation AUC) (AUC 0.79, 95% CI 0.63-0.95). A clinical predictive score incorporating previous VTE, recent surgery, and comorbidities accurately estimated the one-year risk of developing cancer after newly diagnosed VTE, with an AUC of 0.79 in the validation cohort.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa67bc650dab972bddd696chttps://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2407-13-352
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 4 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Deep-Vein Thrombosis and the Incidence of Subsequent Symptomatic Cancer1992 · 688 citations
  2. 2Low-Molecular-Weight Heparin versus a Coumarin for the Prevention of Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism in Patients with Cancer2003 · 2,542 citations
  3. 3The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.1982 · 22,184 citations
  4. 4Prevalence of clinical venous thromboembolism in the USA: Current trends and future projections2010 · 249 citations