Developing an Approach to Agricultural Drought Monitoring for Timor-Leste Using Space-Based Observations

Drought is a natural hazard that poses significant threats to populations, economic sectors, and the environment. At its worst, it can have catastrophic impacts, particularly for vulnerable countries. Drought monitoring is critical in providing timely information about evolving conditions that can save lives and reduce economic losses, in turn building resilience to impacts from climate extremes. Timor-Leste, a least developed country in Southeast Asia, is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, with average acute food insecurity of 27%, and an economy largely based on subsistence agriculture. The severe 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought left 10% of total population at the time at immediate risk of starvation. This study examines agricultural drought monitoring in Timor-Leste using two satellite-derived precipitation and vegetation health products: the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). It was found that both the SPEI and VHI were able to represent the onset, peak, end, and severity of the 2015/16 drought conditions across Timor-Leste in near real-time. The SPEI and VHI correlated well (r = 0.74 and r = 0.79, respectively) with surface-based precipitation observations from Timor-Leste over the 2015/16 study period. This study demonstrates that spaced-based drought monitoring can be a valuable tool for proactive drought management in Timor-Leste and the surrounding regions.