Key result
Simulation indicates expert-targeted pre-emptive culling exacerbates foot-and-mouth disease epidemics vs implemented policy.
Population
Livestock in Cumbria, UK during the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic
Comparison
Alternative control strategy vs The policy as implemented during the 2001 epidemic
Design
Other
Authors
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Challenges expert intuition for culling; leaves open validation of models before guiding future outbreaks.
Simulation modeling suggests that targeting pre-emptive culling based on expert knowledge of FMD transmission would have exacerbated the 2001 UK epidemic compared to the implemented policy.
Rowland R. Kao (2003) studied Foot-and-mouth disease. Pre-emptive culling targeted by expert knowledge vs. Policy as implemented was evaluated on Epidemic control. A simulation model indicated that targeting pre-emptive culling based on expert knowledge would have exacerbated the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic compared with the implemented policy.
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