Gravity model analysis finds extreme rainfall modestly increases outmigration across diverse demographics, highlighting that regional economic disparities remain the principal drivers of mobility.
This study examines the relationship between extreme weather events and internal migration in the Philippines using a migration gravity framework that combines census data with high-resolution climatic indicators. The results show that extreme precipitation events exert a modest but consistent positive effect on outmigration, while temperature extremes produce mixed and largely insignificant effects. These patterns persist across demographic subgroups disaggregated by age, sex, education, and sector of employment. Structural and demographic factors, such as population size, entrenched migration corridors, and regional economic disparities, remain the dominant drivers of mobility, as confirmed by coefficient-derived scenario simulations. These findings underscore the complexity of climate-induced migration in developing economies and highlight the need for climate-resilient development policies that reinforce in-place adaptation capacity and integrate forward-looking risk assessments into spatial planning.
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Innocenti et al. (2026) studied this question.
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