What does this research mean for the field?

The structure-based intensity measure Sa(T1) is the optimal parameter for predicting seismic demand in non-ductile reinforced concrete frames across diverse ground motion scenarios, and analytically derived Expected Loss Ratios using this measure strongly correlate with experimental shake table results. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To establish a probabilistic seismic demand model and fragility relationships for evaluating the vulnerability and seismic risk of non-ductile reinforced concrete frame structures.

September 14, 2026Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami

Experiment-Anchored Probabilistic Seismic Demand Modelling and Fragility Analysis of a Non-Ductile RC Frame

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Authors

AYAli YeşilyurtIstanbul Technical University FCFerit Cakir ROResat Oyguc

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Implication

Computational modeling reveals structural spectral acceleration reliably predicts seismic damage in non-ductile concrete frames, highlighting key parameters for hazard mitigation.

Key Points

To establish a probabilistic seismic demand model and fragility relationships for evaluating the vulnerability and seismic risk of non-ductile reinforced concrete frame structures.
Calibrated a 3D finite element model against experimental test data of a non-ductile reinforced concrete frame.
Conducted cloud analysis across near-fault pulse-like, near-fault non-pulse-like, and far-fault ground motion sets.
Assessed 31 intensity measures across five engineering demand parameters using regression analyses, evaluating efficiency, correlation, practicality, proficiency, and sufficiency.
First-mode spectral acceleration, Sa(T1), consistently performed as the optimum intensity measure across all ground motion types.
Acceleration Spectrum Intensity was optimal among earthquake-based metrics for near-fault records, whereas Velocity Spectrum Intensity was optimal for far-fault records.
Analytically derived Expected Loss Ratio estimates demonstrated a strong, statistically significant correlation with empirical data from shake table tests.

Cite This Study

Yeşilyurt et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa7b2f70926e14a848b18ce https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793431126500260

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Implication

Computational modeling reveals structural spectral acceleration reliably predicts seismic damage in non-ductile concrete frames, highlighting key parameters for hazard mitigation.

Experiment-Anchored Probabilistic Seismic Demand Modelling and Fragility Analysis of a Non-Ductile RC Frame

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Experiment-Anchored Probabilistic Seismic Demand Modelling and Fragility Analysis of a Non-Ductile RC Frame

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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