Determinants of Internal Migration in Thailand: Evidence from Mobile Phone Data

This study uses high-frequency, geographically detailed mobile phone location data to estimate origin–destination migration flows—information that is not available in official statistics—enabling a high-resolution analysis of internal migration in Thailand and its sectoral drivers. A gravity-type model incorporating push and pull factors, together with a dynamic fixed-effects panel regression, is employed. The findings confirm that the migration–urbanization nexus persists and continues to shape Thailand’s structural transformation. Differences in earning opportunities are crucial, particularly in attracting workers from the agriculture sector to the manufacturing sector. The analysis also highlights the role of agriculture as a shelter sector, accommodating in-migration during the coronavirus disease pandemic. The reversal of migration patterns during the pandemic was driven by sharp declines in earning opportunities in the service and manufacturing sectors rather than by incentives originating from agriculture. Beyond income factors, digital technology plays an important role in attracting in-migration, except in manufacturing, where a potential labor replacement effect of technology is observed.