What does this research mean for the field?

The incidence of oral cavity cancer in Central Serbia remained stable from 1999 to 2015 with a persistent male excess, and an apparent subsequent rise is an artifact of expanded registry coverage rather than a genuine epidemiological trend. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To characterize temporal incidence trends of malignant oral cavity tumors by sex from 1999 to 2020 and project national incidence through 2040.

September 14, 2026MedicinaOpen Access

Incidence of Malignant Oral Cavity Tumors in the Republic of Serbia: Trend Analysis (1999–2020) and Projections to 2040

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Authors

VLVojkan LazićUniversity of Belgrade VVVladimir VidenovicKliničko Bolnički Centar Zvezdara AĆAndrija ĆosićUniversity of Nis

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Implication

Population-based trend analysis observes stable oral cavity cancer incidence alongside persistent male excess, indicating that recent apparent increases stem from expanded registry coverage.

Key Points

To characterize temporal incidence trends of malignant oral cavity tumors by sex from 1999 to 2020 and project national incidence through 2040.
Retrospectively analyzed N = 5,695 histopathologically confirmed oral cavity cancer cases (ICD-10: C01–C06, excluding lip) from the Cancer Registry of the Republic of Serbia.
Calculated world standard age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and used joinpoint regression to determine annual percentage changes (APCs) with 95% confidence intervals.
Generated incidence forecasts through 2040 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, including sensitivity assessments for registry expansion.
In Central Serbia under consistent registry coverage (1999–2015), incidence remained stable in men (APC = −0.30%, 95% CI: −1.63 to 1.06) and women (APC = −3.31%, 95% CI: −7.41 to 0.96), with male incidence approximately double that of females (mean ASR 3.63 vs. 1.64).
Nationwide data showed an apparent male incidence rise from 1999 to 2020 (APC = 1.71%, 95% CI: 0.47 to 2.96; p = 0.009) and post-2013 acceleration (APC = 8.39%, p = 0.002), which level-shift modeling attributed directly to the 2016 registry coverage expansion (+50.7%, p < 0.001).
ARIMA models projected a flat overall incidence through 2040 under unchanged coverage at 2.6 per 100,000 overall and 4.7 per 100,000 in men (95% prediction interval widening from 3.6–5.8 in 2021 to 1.2–8.2 in 2040).

Cite This Study

Lazić et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa7b3580926e14a848b231b https://doi.org/10.3390/medicina62091757

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Implication

Population-based trend analysis observes stable oral cavity cancer incidence alongside persistent male excess, indicating that recent apparent increases stem from expanded registry coverage.

Incidence of Malignant Oral Cavity Tumors in the Republic of Serbia: Trend Analysis (1999–2020) and Projections to 2040

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Incidence of Malignant Oral Cavity Tumors in the Republic of Serbia: Trend Analysis (1999–2020) and Projections to 2040

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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