Climate-smart but economically vulnerable: livelihood strategy choices among millet-producing households in Central Tanzania

The irony of climate-smart agriculture is particularly evident in central Tanzania, where farmers cultivating millet, a crop promoted as climate change solutions, face the most difficult livelihood choices. This study examines the livelihood strategies of millet farmers in the Manyoni and Bahi districts of central Tanzania, including the factors influencing these choices. A triangulated clustering analysis based on the activity approach classified the 417 farming households into five distinct clusters, where income levels, commercialization indices, and food security scores were compared. A multinomial logit model examined the drivers of livelihood strategy choices. The results identify five distinct livelihood strategies, with the majority of farmers engaging in multiple economic activities, such as off-farm activities, livestock keeping, and cultivating commercial crops. Cluster 1 represents 28% of households, with the highest income, food security, and market participation, primarily due to finger millet cultivation. In contrast, Cluster 4, comprising farmers who grow only pearl millet, is the poorest, with low income and limited market participation. The key drivers of cluster choices included education, age, extension services, and geographical location. Findings highlight that livelihood strategies among millet-producing households yield distinct welfare outcomes; thus, policies and interventions should prioritize livelihood combinations that result in improved food security and economic resilience.