Comparative assessment of low-carbon energy pathways for agricultural heat and power production

Agriculture has an important role in the transition to a low-carbon economy, but the sector still relies heavily on fossil fuels for heat and electricity production. This study compares alternative pathways for supplying heat, electricity, and combined heat and power in agricultural applications. Twenty-five scenarios were assessed in EnergyPRO using a standardised reference of 10 MWh. The scenarios covered fossil fuels, biofuels, and hydrogen produced using wind, solar, or grid electricity. Independent energy-balance calculations, comparison with benchmarks, and a limited deterministic sensitivity analysis were used to assess the consistency and plausibility of the results. Hydrogen produced using wind electricity had the lowest operational greenhouse gas emissions for heat and combined heat and power production. Wind- and solar-based hydrogen had the lowest emissions in the electricity comparison. Among the combustion-fuel pathways, natural gas produced the lowest emissions, while coal performed least favourably for heat production and gasoline for electricity production. Electricity output differed among the combined heat and power pathways, meaning that emissions must be considered together with demand coverage. The study provides a technical and climate-performance screening of agricultural energy pathways, rather than a sustainability or investment-feasibility assessment. Any application would require further analysis of energy demand, economic feasibility.