A numerical framework for dam-break simulation and risk assessment: application to Sélingué Dam

This study presents a numerical framework for dam-break simulation and socio-economic risk assessment, applied to the strategic Sélingué Dam in Mali. The framework couples the TELEMAC-2D hydrodynamic solver with geospatial analysis to simulate flood propagation and translate hydrodynamic outputs into actionable risk metrics. A worst-case instantaneous breach inundates 76.2 km2 downstream, with deep flooding (>2.0 m) affecting 82% of the inundated area and critical building damage covering 74% of the flooded zone. Life-threatening conditions emerge within 18 min, while more than 4% of the downstream domain is inundated within three hours, highlighting extremely limited response times. By integrating OpenStreetMap settlement data with simulated flood characteristics, the framework identifies 11 affected villages, delineates emergency planning zones, and generates prioritized evacuation schedules. The proposed methodology provides a transferable decision-support framework for disaster preparedness, land-use planning, and dam-safety management in data-scarce and vulnerable regions.