Risk factors for progression from low level BK dnaemia to unfavorable outcomes after BK management via immunosuppressive reduction

BACKGROUNDS: copies/mL and BK nephropathy, and others may develop de novo DSA (dnDSA) or acute rejection (AR). METHODS: This was a single-center study of KTRs transplanted at the University of Wisconsin-Madison between 01/01/2015 and 12/31/2017. In this study, we sought to elucidate characteristics associated with the progression of BKPyV-DNAemia to unfavorable outcomes after decreasing immunosuppressive medications for the management of BK viremia as described in consensus guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 224 KTRs fulfilled our selection criteria; 118 (53%) resolved or had persistent low DNAemia, 64 (28%) had severe BK/nephropathy, and 42 (19%) developed dnDSA or AR. In multivariable analysis, female gender (HR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.08-3.90; P = .02); previous rejection (HR: 2.90; 95% CI: 1.04-8.12; P = .04), and early infection (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.72-0.90; P < .001) were associated with the development of severe BK/nephropathy. Conversely, non-depleting induction at transplant (HR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.03-4.11; P = .03), HLA mismatches >3 (HR: 2.27; HR: 1.01-5.06; P = .04), and delayed graft function (HR: 4.14; 95% CI: 1.12-15.28; P = .03) were associated with development of dnDSA and/or rejection. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that almost half of KTRs with BKPyV-DNAemia managed by our immunosuppressant adjustment protocol progress unfavorably. Identification of these risk factors could assist the frontline clinician in creating an individualized immunosuppressive modification plan potentially mitigating negative outcomes.