Understanding consumer refusal: A circular consumption predictive model

Among circular economy strategies, refusal exhibits the highest circularity potential, yet it remains one of the least empirically explored consumer behaviors. Existing research has predominantly addressed refusal indirectly, by examining preferences for circular alternatives, leaving a limited understanding of the determinants that drive the deliberate rejection of linear products within households. Addressing this gap, this study investigates the factors that predict both refusal intention and refusal behavior at the household level. Grounded in an expanded Theory of Planned Behavior, the study incorporates past behavioral control to capture the role of previously experienced enablers and constraints in shaping behavior enactment. Empirical evidence is drawn from a questionnaire survey consisting of 658 respondents and analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling. The results show that refusal intention is jointly shaped by attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control, with control emerging as the strongest predictor. Intention, in turn, exerts a substantial and statistically significant positive effect on refusal behavior, confirming its central role in translating motivational states into action. Past behavioral control also displays a positive and significant direct effect on refusal behavior. However, its moderating role on the intention-behavior relationship is not supported. These findings indicate that refusal is not merely an attitudinal or normative choice, but a behavior strongly conditioned by situational and structural factors that enable or constrain action. Overall, the model demonstrates robust explanatory and predictive power, reinforcing the importance of integrating control-related constructs when examining high-effort circular behaviors. The study contributes theoretically by exploring refusal behavior through the lens of the Theory of Planned Behavior and empirically distinguishing between motivational and enactment mechanisms. From a practical perspective, the findings suggest that policies and interventions aimed at promoting refusal should move beyond awareness and persuasion, emphasizing demand-side enablement, system readiness, and the reduction of contextual barriers. By explicitly focusing on direct refusal, this research advances understanding of household agency in the transition toward a more circular economy.