Population-based study reveals rising bone and cartilage cancer burden in older males, highlighting persistent healthcare challenges from population aging.
Key Points
To evaluate long-term trends in the burden of malignant neoplasm of bone and articular cartilage between 1990 and 2021 and project future disease rates through 2030.
Extracted incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs, YLDs, and YLLs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Quantified temporal trends with joinpoint regression, evaluated age-period-cohort effects, and used decomposition analysis to isolate drivers of disease burden.
Projected age-standardized rates through 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort models.
In 2021, an estimated 25,938 incident cases, 166,569 prevalent cases, 18,085 deaths, and 527,284 DALYs occurred, with consistently higher burden among males and older adults.
From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized rates increased significantly for incidence (AAPC 2.59%), prevalence (AAPC 2.71%), mortality (AAPC 0.44%), DALYs (AAPC 1.26%), and YLDs (AAPC 2.51%), while the YLL rate showed no significant change.
Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates are projected to decrease modestly through 2030, with greater reductions expected among females.