Key result
Super-spreader ranking of livestock mobilization data predicts FMD outbreaks with 0.91 AUC.
Why the study?
Transportation networks can be described by different centrality metrics, making it challenging to prioritize the most vulnerable nodes for surveillance and control of foot-and-mouth disease.
Observational (n=175,068)
Effect estimate: AUC 0.91
A network risk ranking based on livestock transportation data can accurately predict foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, aiding in targeted surveillance and control.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious condition that affects domestic and wild cloven-hoofed animals. This disease has substantial economic consequences. Livestock movement is one of the primary causes of disease dissemination. The centrality properties of the livestock mobilization transportation network provide valuable information for surveillance and control of FMD. However, the same transportation network can be described by different centrality descriptions, making it challenging to prioritize the most vulnerable nodes in the transportation network. This work considers the construction of a single network risk ranking, which helps prioritize disease control measurements. Results show that the proposed ranking constructed on 2016 livestock mobilization data may predict an actual outbreak reported in the Cesar (Colombia) region in 2018, with a performance measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91. This result constitutes the first quantitative evidence of the predictive capacity of livestock transportation to target FMD outbreaks. This approach may help decision-makers devise strategies to control and prevent FMD.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Moreno et al. (2023) conducted an observational in Foot-and-mouth disease (n=175,068). Super-spreaders-based ranking (SSBR) of livestock movement vs. Alternative ranking methods (e.g., density of animals, number of farms) was evaluated on Prediction of municipalities affected by the 2018 FMD outbreak (Area under the ROC curve) (AUC 0.91). A super-spreaders-based ranking constructed from 2016 livestock mobilization data predicted an actual foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in 2018 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.91.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: