Predicted cases of U.K. skin squamous cell carcinoma and basal cell carcinoma in 2020 and 2025: horizon planning for National Health Service dermatology and dermatopathology

Dear Editor, Potential skin cancer referrals constitute a dominant and disproportionate number of dermatology referrals from primary care in the U.K. The majority of dermatology and pathology departments in the U.K. are struggling to cope with rising demand for diagnostic and treatment services, and recent austerity measures, with cutbacks in all public service budgets, have also affected the National Health Service (NHS). In this study, we have analysed data from the East of England, specifically East Norfolk and Waveney, and estimated the number of cases of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) of the skin for 2020 and 2025. It is hoped that the data will assist in the planning of NHS resource allocation in the short and medium term, both for this region and nationally. Data from the Eastern Office, National Cancer Registration Service, Public Health England, were obtained from 2000 to 2013 for SCCs and BCCs and compared with the incidence of these cancers recorded in East Norfolk and Waveney (ENW) (Breckland, Broadland, Great Yarmouth, North Norfolk, Norwich, South Norfolk and Waveney community districts) in the eastern region of the U.K. (East of England), from 2003 to 2015. These areas represent the catchment area of the histopathology service at the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital. All in situ tumours were excluded.