Policy Analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: A Bayesian Network Model Approach

The starting point of the policy analysis of the Tonle Sap Area in Cambodia was the Mekong Agreement of 1995. It specifies three development goals for the Mekong Basin: economic growth, poverty reduction and environmental sustainability. The possibilities to find combinations of sector policies for achieving these often conflicting goals were analysed systematically using a probabilistic, Bayesian network model. Four policy scenarios were constructed, one promoting each of the three development goals separately and one integrated, compromise scenario. The results indicate that a compromise policy is possible, being radically more balanced and acceptable than any of the policies that target only one of the three goals at a time.