The Next Decade of Health Spending—Affordability and Value

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Factors such as healthcare consolidation, delivery intensity, and artificial intelligence will significantly shape the distribution of healthcare costs and the realization of health gains in the US over the next decade. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.SYNTHESIS. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

Irene Papanicolas; Anna D. Sinaiko

doi:10.1001/jama.2026.15967

September 14, 2026JAMA

The Next Decade of Health Spending—Affordability and Value

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Key result

Market consolidation, health care delivery intensity, and artificial intelligence are key factors that will shape future US health care spending, cost distribution, and clinical value.

Key Points

Examine projected trajectories of US health care spending over the next decade and evaluate how structural changes influence affordability and health outcomes.
Expert perspective evaluating macroeconomic and policy dynamics governing health care expenditure in the United States.
Qualitative synthesis of market consolidation trends, care delivery intensity, and adoption barriers surrounding artificial intelligence.
Provider and insurer consolidation alters the distribution of financial burden, shifting rising costs onto employers, patients, and public programs.
Increasing intensity of care delivery combined with the integration of artificial intelligence will govern future spending growth and determine whether expenditures produce meaningful gains in population health.

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Implication

A perspective on how consolidation, delivery intensity, and artificial intelligence will impact US health care spending and overall value in the coming decade.

Abstract

This Perspective discusses health care spending in the US and how factors such as consolidation, intensity of health care delivery, and artificial intelligence can affect who bears the costs and whether health gains are achieved.

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Cite This Study

Papanicolas et al. (2026) studied this question. Market consolidation, health care delivery intensity, and artificial intelligence are key factors that will shape future US health care spending, cost distribution, and clinical value.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa94e6a9013453be30a2689 https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2026.15967

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The Next Decade of Health Spending—Affordability and Value

Key Points

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Implication

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Discussion

Cite This Study

The Next Decade of Health Spending—Affordability and Value

Key Points

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Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

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