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Mathematical modeling reveals media coverage and higher vaccine efficiency reduce COVID-19 epidemic size and peak infections, highlighting the need to pair public communication with immunization.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread concern around the world. In order to study the impact of media coverage and vaccination on the spread of COVID-19, we establish an SVEAIQR infectious disease model, and fit the important parameters such as transmission rate, isolation rate and vaccine efficiency based on the data from Shanghai Municipal Health Commission and the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. Meanwhile, the control reproduction number and the final size are derived. Moreover, through sensitivity analysis by PRCC (partial rank correlation coefficient), we discuss the effects of both the behavior change constant k according to media coverage and the vaccine efficiency ε on the transmission of COVID-19. Numerical explorations of the model suggest that during the outbreak of the epidemic, media coverage can reduce the final size by about 0.26 times. Besides that, comparing with $ 50% $ vaccine efficiency, when the vaccine efficiency reaches $ 90% $, the peak value of infected people decreases by about 0.07 times. In addition, we simulate the impact of media coverage on the number of infected people in the case of vaccination or non-vaccination. Accordingly, the management departments should pay attention to the impact of vaccination and media coverage.
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Wang et al. (2023) studied this question.
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