From Connectivity to Security: E‐commerce Expansion and Crime Reduction in China

This study examined the effect of e‐commerce expansion on crime using China's Rural E‐commerce Demonstration County policy. A panel dataset covering 1,982 counties from 2013 to 2020 was constructed from criminal court judgments and analyzed using a difference‐in‐differences approach to estimate the policy's effect on criminal activity. The results indicated that the policy significantly reduced crime, particularly property and public security offenses. The estimated reductions were statistically significant among defendants aged 31–60 and among those with at least a junior high school education. Additional analyses suggested that the crime reduction was associated with improved employment opportunities and higher incomes among local residents, as well as increased earnings and stronger settlement intentions among migrant workers. This paper highlights the role of digital development as a tool for public safety and social stability, offering novel evidence from a developing‐country context.