Key result
Low-threshold closures across all school types cut cases ~80% versus baseline.
Why the study?
The epidemiological and economic effects of individual school closures during pandemics remain unclear.
Do individual school closure strategies reduce the number of cases and what is their economic impact during an influenza pandemic?
Population
Simulated population based on data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong
Comparison
Individual school closure strategies vs baseline scenario
Design
Simulation model study
Authors
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Targeted school closures may avert most cases at ~$1,145 each; leaves open feasibility, triggers, and generalizability beyond this Hong Kong simulation.
Do individual school closure strategies reduce the number of cases and what is their economic impact during an influenza pandemic?
Effect estimate: 80% decrease
Individual school closure strategies involving all school types with low trigger thresholds can significantly reduce pandemic influenza cases, though at a substantial economic cost.
Wong et al. (2016) studied 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza (n=6,900,000). Individual school closure strategies vs. Baseline scenario (no school closure) was evaluated on Number of cases prevented (80% decrease). Individual school closure strategies involving all school types with a low trigger threshold reduced the number of cases by 80% (preventing about 830,000 cases) at a cost of USD1,145 per case prevented.
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