Long-Term Prognosis and Predictors of Mortality in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Retrospective Analysis

BACKGROUND: Aortic valve disease is a common and impactful disorder that imposes significant health burdens and is associated with increased mortality rates. Particularly noteworthy is the emergence of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), a minimally invasive procedure that has revolutionized the management of aortic valve disease. However, there remain certain unresolved questions and ongoing research regarding the long-term effectiveness and suitability of TAVR in various patient populations, underscoring the need for further investigation and clinical scrutiny. OBJECTIVE: This retrospective analysis aimed to investigate the long-term outcomes and predictors of mortality in 500 patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). METHODS: This retrospective analysis included individuals who received transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) at Sri Venkata Sai (SVS) Medical College, Mahabubnagar, Telangana, India, between January 2020 and July 2023. Demographic characteristics, including age, gender, and comorbidities, were recorded, and long-term outcomes after TAVR were assessed, including the incidence of survival rates and major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Predictors of mortality were also identified using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS: The study group exhibited an average age of 75.6 years (standard deviation (SD): 6.8), with 58% male and 42% female patients. Hypertension (74%), coronary artery disease (CAD) (68%), diabetes mellitus (DM) (42%), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage ≥ 3 (36%) were prevalent comorbidities. The median follow-up duration was 5.2 years (interquartile range (IQR): 4.3-6.8 years). The overall long-term survival rate after TAVR was 73.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 69.8%-77.1%). Additionally, MACE occurred in 21% of patients throughout the follow-up period. The cumulative incidence of MACE at one year, three years, and five years was 6.8% (95% CI: 4.2%-9.5%), 14.2% (95% CI: 10.6%-18.7%), and 21.8% (95% CI: 17.3%-26.7%), respectively. The study found that higher age (hazard ratio (HR): 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.12, p < 0.001), male gender (HR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.15-1.91, p = 0.002), and the presence of CAD (HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.29-2.30, p < 0.001) were linked to an elevated risk of mortality. Additionally, diabetes mellitus (HR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.05-1.85, p = 0.022) and CKD stage ≥ 3 (HR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.47-2.61, p < 0.001) emerged as notable predictors of mortality. Conversely, a history of prior coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.46-0.84, p = 0.003) was associated with a reduced risk of mortality. No significant associations were found between mortality and hypertension (HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 0.88-1.43, p = 0.360) or prior percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 0.88-1.67, p = 0.245). CONCLUSION: Age, male gender, CAD, DM, and CKD stage ≥ 3 were significant indicators of mortality risk in TAVR patients. Risk stratification and individualized management are crucial in optimizing long-term outcomes following TAVR procedures.