Modeling coliforms in storm water plumes

The recreational waters near many large cities in the United States and Canada are severely impaired by pathogens that are present in the storm water runoff. In separated sewers the pathogen sources may be cross-flows between the sanitary and storm water systems. This paper presents the methodology that was used in developing a forecasting model for pathogen indicators for recreational sites in the receiving waters of multiple storm water outfalls. The objective of the model is to give a timelier indicator of beach water quality than conventional beach monitoring, which takes about 2 d for laboratory results. The model used for the study was based on the Princeton Ocean Model. The forecasting system consists of nested hydrodynamic models and a bacteria fate–transport submodel. Calibration and validation is based on 6 years of field studies, laboratory analyses, and experiments. The methodology is illustrated by a case study of the impact of storm water flows on the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, which has been banned for swimming since 1985. The water quality data included: pathogen indicators (fecal coliform, Enterococci, and E. Coli), water chemistry parameters, turbidity, and nutrients.