Researcher enthusiasm for actuarial approaches to the prediction of risk must be tempered by reality. They provide limited, sometimes misleading, information about groups and say nothing about individuals. Effective prevention of a problem requires an understanding of its causation, something beyond mere recognition of associations. Risk changes over time, place and circumstances and effective management depends on being able to adapt risk assessment into a dynamic system.
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Дон Грубин (1997) studied this question.
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