Panel study demonstrates a composite financial conditions index predicts regional economic activity in Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting its utility for monitoring macro-financial risks.
This paper constructs a monthly Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2019–2025, combining domestic and global financial indicators. The index captures co-movement in regional financial conditions, from COVID-era easing to post-2023 tightening and a recent easing in financial conditions after the April 2025 ‘Liberation Day’. Panel estimates show that the composite FCI predicts short-term economic activity, beyond what is captured by its individual components. The FCI thus provides a high-frequency tool for tracking domestic and external drivers of regional financial conditions and macro-financial risks in a data-constrained region.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Sever et al. (2026) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: