What question did this study set out to answer?

To assess how global climate warming will alter temperature-dependent population growth rates and fundamental thermal niches of arthropod crop pests worldwide.

September 17, 2026EcographyOpen Access

Future warming enhances rates of population increase of arthropod crop pests globally

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Authors

DMDarío San-Segundo Molina IMIgnacio Morales‐Castilla SVSara Villén‐Pérez

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Overview

Global modeling study demonstrates increased population growth potential under warming by 2050 in arthropod crop pests, indicating heightened agricultural risks in temperate regions.

Key Points

To assess how global climate warming will alter temperature-dependent population growth rates and fundamental thermal niches of arthropod crop pests worldwide.
Compiled a comprehensive global dataset on the thermal biology and temperature-dependent population dynamics of arthropod crop pests.
Fitted population-level thermal performance curves (TPCs) to quantify species-specific intrinsic rates of population increase.
Modeled latitudinal patterns in upper and lower thermal limits to project shifts in pest performance under historical and 2050 climate scenarios.
Most arthropod crop pests are projected to experience enhanced thermal potential for population growth under climate warming by 2050.
Temperate pest populations retain substantial capacity for increased population growth, whereas tropical populations face elevated exposure to performance-limiting heat stress.
Lower thermal limits for population growth declined with latitude while upper thermal limits remained constant, creating an asymmetric thermal niche that drives geographic disparities in pest growth.

Cite This Study

Molina et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aabb75d5f706d05830e6589 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08568

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September 17, 2026EcographyOpen Access

Future warming enhances rates of population increase of arthropod crop pests globally

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

DMDarío San-Segundo Molina IMIgnacio Morales‐Castilla SVSara Villén‐Pérez

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Global modeling study demonstrates increased population growth potential under warming by 2050 in arthropod crop pests, indicating heightened agricultural risks in temperate regions.

Key Points

To assess how global climate warming will alter temperature-dependent population growth rates and fundamental thermal niches of arthropod crop pests worldwide.
Compiled a comprehensive global dataset on the thermal biology and temperature-dependent population dynamics of arthropod crop pests.
Fitted population-level thermal performance curves (TPCs) to quantify species-specific intrinsic rates of population increase.
Modeled latitudinal patterns in upper and lower thermal limits to project shifts in pest performance under historical and 2050 climate scenarios.
Most arthropod crop pests are projected to experience enhanced thermal potential for population growth under climate warming by 2050.
Temperate pest populations retain substantial capacity for increased population growth, whereas tropical populations face elevated exposure to performance-limiting heat stress.
Lower thermal limits for population growth declined with latitude while upper thermal limits remained constant, creating an asymmetric thermal niche that drives geographic disparities in pest growth.

Cite This Study

Molina et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aabb75d5f706d05830e6589 https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08568

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