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September 17, 2026Geospatial healthOpen Access

Spatio-temporal epidemiology of intestinal infectious diseases in Blantyre District, Malawi

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Authors

RMRichard MvulaECEmmanuel ChinkakaVKVincent Katonda

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Overview

Spatiotemporal analysis reveals distinct seasonal surges and expanding high-risk infection clusters in district populations, highlighting the need for geographically targeted interventions.

Key Points

  • To identify high-risk zones and evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of cholera, schistosomiasis, and other diarrheal diseases over a five-year period.
  • Analyzed epidemiological surveillance data for cholera, schistosomiasis, and other diarrheal diseases (ODDs) from 2018 to 2023 in Blantyre District, Malawi.
  • Applied descriptive epidemiology, Local Moran's I spatial autocorrelation to detect disease hot spots, and the Kulldorff retrospective scan statistic for space-time cluster detection.
  • Other diarrheal diseases demonstrated the highest incidence (2,714 to 3,631 per 100,000) with High-High clusters expanding southward, whereas cholera incidence ranged from 0 to 320 per 100,000 with clusters isolated to northern sectors between 2021 and 2023.
  • Temporal analysis demonstrated that cholera and other diarrheal diseases peaked during the rainy season (October–March), while schistosomiasis incidence peaked between April and June.
  • Space-time surveillance identified nine primary clusters for schistosomiasis and other diarrheal diseases and two for cholera, concentrating primarily within the urban city center alongside secondary clusters in northern and western zones.

Cite This Study

Mvula et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aabb7755f706d05830e6747https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2026.1427
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