The Global Paradox of Declining Incidence and Rising Prevalence in Musculoskeletal Disorders: An Epidemiological Analysis

Objectives: This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) from 1990 to 2021 across 204 countries and regions, providing insights into the global impact of these disorders. Material and Methods: Utilizing the extensive global burden of disease database, this research employs statistical techniques including estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The analysis is stratified by age, gender, and socio-demographic index (SDI) to elucidate variations in MSDs burdens across different populations and timeframes. This methodology facilitates a robust examination of trends in age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs, offering a comprehensive overview of the state of MSDs. Results: The findings indicate a notable increase in global prevalence and DALY rates despite a concurrent decline in incidence and mortality, suggesting improvements in survival rates and chronic disease management. Regional disparities are pronounced; high SDI regions report elevated prevalence and DALYs but decreasing mortality rates, whereas lower SDI regions experience rising mortality. Additionally, age and gender analyses reveal that older adults and females bear a higher disease burden, with peak incidence occurring earlier in populations from lower SDI regions. Conclusion: This study highlights the persistent and evolving challenge posed by MSDs, emphasizing the necessity for tailored prevention, resource allocation, and rehabilitation strategies that are sensitive to demographic and socioeconomic contexts. Future projections indicate a modest rise in prevalence, particularly among females, alongside continued decreases in incidence and mortality. These findings provide crucial evidence for public health policy development aimed at mitigating health inequalities and optimizing the management of musculoskeletal conditions on a global scale.