Sharpening the grey zone: a case study analysis of the illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive (ICAD) framework

The grey zone has been at the centre of lively debates since the concept was formalised more than a decade ago. An abundant literature has emerged over that period that has considerably improved our understanding of the “space between war and peace”. Yet, grey zone operations have continued to be, in many ways, frustratingly difficult to capture fully and even more difficult to efficiently respond to. This article examines the recent proposal to overlay the grey zone with the ‘Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive and Deceptive’ (ICAD) framework. It argues that ICAD can fruitfully contribute to a disambiguation of the grey zone, by linking grey zone operations to known sets of behaviours and actions. In doing so, ICAD also facilitates the formulation of potentially more efficient responses, as it allows a more fine-grained identification of the challenges posed by specific grey zone operations and the mobilisation of relevant countervailing approaches.