Growth modelling of living Pinaceae unlocks the stature of ancient relatives

Today, Pinaceae are the largest family of living conifers in the world, yet we know little about their tree heights in the late Mesozoic and Cenozoic. A statistically sound approach to estimate ancient tree height from fossil log diameter is to extrapolate size based on height–diameter relationships in living relatives. Here, we evaluate 20 growth models inferred from height–diameter data of 2530 living Pinaceae trees from nine populations. Model selection using the Akaike information criterion revealed substantial population‐specific variation in model support. To establish a robust family‐level relationship, we generated 100 random subsamples from our data, applied 12 models that were successfully fitted to each of ten datasets and established ten median models using multiple performance criteria. On the family level, the median Logistic model had the best predictive performance and is recommended for estimating the height of ancient trees. The Logistic model was applied to 26 standing pinaceous trunks of Miocene age in Lesvos, Greece, and obtained heights between 22.2 and 25.3 m, with a median of 25.3 m. In summary, we present a robust empirical framework for reconstructing the stature of ancient Pinaceae trees and highlight the value of generating height–diameter growth models using living analogues for extrapolation to fossil trees.