Commentary: 'Epidemiologic transition' interrupted or sweep to the second stage of 'health transition'?

Do it twice and you will get different results. Thats a very common law when measuring demographic indicators in developing countries where current statistics are incomplete. And it is very likely that the third time will give yet another result! It is not enough to make good demographers despair. It even presents a good opportunity to outstanding specialists like the authors of Epidemiologic transition interrupted: a reassessment of mortality trends in Thailand to try to approach the true measure of mortality in such a country. To approach not to reach absolutely of course. Indeed several questions still await answers. But the most questionable aspect of the results presented here is not to what extent reassessment fits the reality but to what extent trends reassessed justify the main title: Epidemiologic transition interrupted. The work done by the authors of the article significantly improves our knowledge about recent trends in Thai mortality. They make a very important clarification of the complex set of contradicting data produced by direct and indirect methods applied to vital statistics census data and the results of different types of surveys. They give us a clearer idea of what must be rejected what can be used and what can be improved by adequate correction. Nevertheless as usual good answers bring new questions. (excerpt)