Methodological limitations of statistical accounting of migration flows to Russia and the European Union

The subject of the research is international migration. The relevance of studying migration processes is due to their unprecedented scale and dynamism, as well as their multifaceted impact on host societies. The object of the research is the methodological limitations of statistical accounting of migration flows. Migration processes remain one of the most developed topics in social sciences; however, the methodology of collecting statistical data on migration rarely becomes the subject of independent critical analysis. At the same time, it constructs the image of migration reality as interpreted by researchers and decision-makers. Accordingly, the choice of accounting methodology affects the objectivity of the perception of migration processes, as well as the formation and effectiveness of state migration policy. The author thoroughly examines the existing migration accounting systems in the Russian Federation and the European Union based on key categories of international migrants—long-term, temporary (seasonal or rotational), forced, and irregular. Particular attention is paid to the problems of statistical accounting in these systems, such as statistical artifacts, under- and over-counting, and the statistical invisibility of certain categories of migrants. The research is based on a comparative method, as well as logical and dialectical methods. Institutional and statistical analysis, along with a comparative-historical method, are applied in reviewing the changes in migration accounting methodology by Rosstat. The novelty of the research lies in the critical analysis of existing migration accounting systems in the Russian Federation and the European Union, as well as in their comparative analysis. A significant contribution of the author to the research topic is the systematization of methodological limitations of statistical accounting of migration flows in the Russian Federation and the European Union by the main categories of migrants. Thus, a priority issue is the criterion of the duration of the allowed stay, which effectively conceals large volumes of temporary migrants from statistics. This criterion can also lead to an overestimation of the number of long-term migrants, as there is no adjustment for the departures of migrants from the country. In the case of forced migration, granting citizenship or special legal status to refugees also leads to under-counting. Finally, the most problematic area for statistics is irregular migration. The author also evaluates the current reforms in the migration policy of the Russian Federation, which began in 2025. The findings obtained during the research can be applied to adjust the methodology of migration statistics accounting by relevant authorities and institutions.