Key result
A risk score using age, smoking, prehypertension, and central obesity predicts incident hypertension with AUC ~0.80.
Why the study?
A simple and easy to administer risk score to predict hypertension in primary care settings in rural India was needed.
Can a simple risk score predict incident hypertension in primary care settings in rural India?
Cohort (n=297)
Can a simple risk score predict incident hypertension in primary care settings in rural India?
A simple risk score using age, smoking status, prehypertension, and central obesity can effectively predict incident hypertension in rural Indian primary care settings.
May support hypertension risk stratification in rural Indian primary care; leaves open need for external validation before adoption.
We used the data of 297 participants (15-64 years old) from a cohort study (2003-2010) who were free from hypertension at baseline, to develop a risk score to predict hypertension by primary health care workers in rural India. Age ≥35 years, current smoking, prehypertension, and central obesity were significantly associated with incident hypertension. The optimal cutoff value of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 78.6%, specificity of 65.2%, positive predictive value of 41.1%, and negative predictive value of 90.8%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk score was 0.802 (95% confidence interval = 0.748-0.856). This simple and easy to administer risk score could be used to predict hypertension in primary care settings in rural India.
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Sathish et al. (2015) conducted a cohort in Hypertension (n=297). Risk score for incident hypertension was evaluated on Incident hypertension (AUC 0.802, 95% CI 0.748-0.856). A simple risk score comprising age ≥35 years, current smoking, prehypertension, and central obesity predicted incident hypertension with an AUC of 0.802 (95% CI 0.748-0.856).
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