Predicting Population Trends of Mule Deer

Prediction of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) population trends can help guide subsequent management action. We used a time series model of density-dependent population growth as the basis for predicting mule deer population trends in south-central Oregon and identifying environmental factors associated with these trends. We identified precipitation during June and August, and a forage biomass measure, using 2 management information indices that were strongly associated with subsequent year population change, and incorporated them as covariates into the prediction of population size. This model may be used to increase understanding of the environmental requirements of deer and other species and may serve as a forecasting tool for management. Mule deer in south-central Oregon that occupy forested communities have been declining since the 1930s. These declines are at least partially attributable to diminishing forage availability.