Probation duration: Do longer probation sentences increase public safety?

In this study we examine whether or not incremental increases in the duration of a probation sentence increase public safety as measured by recidivism. Using 10 years of data from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing merged with data from the Administrative Office of the Pennsylvania Courts we compare recidivism outcomes for similarly situated individuals sentenced to shorter or longer periods of probation based on natural judicial variation in sentencing outcomes. Using inverse probability weighting techniques with covariate balancing propensity scores we find that recidivism is not substantially or significantly reduced by longer periods of probation, and that longer probation sentences may indeed be counterproductive. Our findings are timely and important as over 3 million Americans are currently on probation supervision, and many jurisdictions are currently undertaking efforts to reform probation policies that include capping the length of probation sentences. We believe our findings are an important contribution to the ongoing academic and policy conversation regarding appropriate use, and length of, probation sentences.