Climate change and suicide risk: A panel analysis of South Korea for 1997–2024

This study examines the association between climate exposure and suicide risk in South Korea using a district-level monthly panel dataset for 1997–2024. We link cause-of-death records to high-resolution climate data and estimate fixed-effects models that control for district-by-month seasonality and upper-level region-by-year shocks. The results show that a 1°C increase in monthly mean temperature is associated with an increase of approximately 0.02 suicides per 100,000 people, equivalent to roughly 1% of the mean monthly suicide rate. Monthly precipitation is also positively associated with suicide rates: a 100-mm increase in precipitation is associated with an increase of approximately 0.03 suicides per 100,000 people. The effect of temperature is not uniform across locations or population groups. It is larger in low-income districts and districts with above-average populations and is also greater among men and older adults. In contrast, heterogeneity in the effect of precipitation is more limited, although the association appears stronger in districts with higher long-term mean temperatures. These findings suggest that climate-related mental health risks are unevenly distributed across socioeconomic, spatial, and demographic groups. They also indicate that suicide prevention and climate adaptation policies should account for local vulnerability rather than relying solely on population-wide average effects.