Net Clinical Benefit of Antithrombotic Therapy in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND: The balance between stroke reduction and increased bleeding associated with antithrombotic therapy among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) is controversial. OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the risk associated with CKD in individual CHA₂DS₂-VASc (Congestive heart failure; Hypertension; Age ≥75 years; Diabetes mellitus; previous Stroke, transient ischemic attack, or thromboembolism; Vascular disease; Age 65 to 74 years; Sex category) strata and the net clinical benefit of warfarin in patients with AF and CKD in a nationwide cohort. METHODS: By individual-level linkage of nationwide Danish registries, we identified all patients discharged with nonvalvular AF from 1997 to 2011. The stroke risk associated with non-end-stage CKD and end-stage CKD (e.g., patients on renal replacement therapy [RRT]) was estimated using Cox regression analyses. The net clinical benefit of warfarin was assessed using 4 endpoints: a composite endpoint of death/hospitalization from stroke/bleeding; a composite endpoint of fatal stroke/fatal bleeding; cardiovascular death; and all-cause death. RESULTS: From nonvalvular AF patients (n = 154,259), we identified 11,128 patients (7.2%) with non-end-stage CKD and 1,728 (1.1%) receiving RRT. In all CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk groups, RRT was independently associated with a higher risk of stroke/thromboembolism, from a 5.5-fold higher risk in patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score = 0 to a 1.6-fold higher risk in patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥2. In patients receiving RRT with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥2, warfarin was associated with lower risk of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.85, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72 to 0.99). In non-end-stage CKD patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥2, warfarin was associated with a lower risk of a composite outcome of fatal stroke/fatal bleeding (HR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.88), a lower risk of cardiovascular death (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.74 to 0.88), and a lower risk of all-cause death (HR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.69). CONCLUSIONS: CKD is associated with a higher risk of stroke/thromboembolism across stroke risk strata in AF patients. High-risk CKD patients (CHA₂DS₂-VASc ≥2) with AF benefit from warfarin treatment for stroke prevention.