Global Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production and Associated Resource Decoupling: 2010–2050

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) methodology has previously been developed to assess the intensity of anthropogenic extraction of biomass resources. However, there is limited analysis concerning future trends of HANPP. Here we present four scenarios for global biomass demand and HANPP harv (the most key component of HANPP) from 2010 to 2050 by incorporating data on expanded historical drivers and disaggregated biomass demand (food, wood material, and fuelwood). The results show that the biomass demand has the lowest value in the equitability world scenario (an egalitarian vision) and the highest value in the security foremost scenario (an isolationist vision). The biomass demand for food and materials increases over time, while fuelwood demand decreases over time. Global HANPP harv rises to between 8.5 and 10.1 Pg C/yr in 2050 in the four scenarios, 14–35% above its value in 2010, and some 50% of HANPP harv is calculated to be crop residues, wood residues, and food losses in the future. HANPP harv in developing regions (Asia, Africa, and Latin America) increases faster than that in more-developed regions (North America and Europe), due to urbanization, population growth, and increasing income. Decoupling of HANPP harv and socioeconomic development is also discussed in this work.